The following are my thoughts, game plan and results from the Mickey & Friends lenticular card set drop. I hope that by sharing my experience we can all learn together from it!
Pre-Game
I knew the Mickey & Friends drop was going to be big based on previous Disney drops such as Golden Moments and Steamboat Willie, the fact that these were new types of collectibles featuring music & animation, and because this was the first appearance on the blockchain of iconic Disney characters such as Minnie Mouse, Goofy and Donald Duck (despite the FE label).
Going into the drop I had 2,000 gems I had accumulated by selling some of my collection for the Croc drop, which I ended up not pulling the trigger on.
I also purchased an additional 5,000 gems, bringing my total war chest to 7,000 gems.
According to my price predictions, this would be enough to collect the whole set and make some moves in the marketplace.
Price Predictions
Going into the drop I wanted to have a strong thesis for where the prices would end up, so I wouldn’t second guess myself or FOMO into any bad decisions.
I did some research, had conversations on Twitter and Discord, analyzed past trends and edition sizes to arrive at the following price prediction:
- Mickey Mouse – 300-400 gems
- Minnie Mouse – 400-500 gems
- Daisy Duck – 600 gems
- Pluto – 800-1000 gems
- Goofy – 1500-2000 gems
Mickey I expected to remain below where SBW was on openning day since this was not the first appearance of Mickey on the app or as significant.
Minnie was a first appearance, so I expected people to stack her.
Donald & Goofy were the most popular characters, so I expected them to be high.
Daisy is not as popular as Donald, but has fewer editions so I expected that to balance out.
And finally Pluto I put somewhere in the middle.
Game Plan
My game plan was to scan through the prices as soon as the market opened, and snipe anything below where I predicted the price should be.
I would try to gather a full set if I could affordably do so, but this was not a must own set for me.
Since there were so many collectibles in the set, I decided I would focus on Minnie and Donald and stack them.
The Drop
I participated in the drop and was able to score one on the blind box, but the app errored out and didn’t give me a green truck so I had no idea what I got.
There were some delivery issues so I wouldn’t get my collectible until many hours later.
I ended up getting a fairly low-mint Daisy (#179) which I threw on the market for 1000 gems (it sold a few hours later).
The Market
It took a long time for collectibles to deliver, so prices started pretty high. Goofy was selling for 4K gems, and the others were selling in the 800-900 range, and Pluto at 1.5K.
I was actually able to snipe a Daisy off the floor for 500 gems, which I immediately flipped for 850 gems. Not a bad start to the day.
Beyond that, however, I wasn’t seeing any deals on the marketplace and prices were still high. There was still only 25% delivery at that point, so I decided to wait it out and wait for prices to come down.
Up until that point I was mostly looking at the floor, so I switched tactics and started looking at the low mints.
I came across a #61 Daisy for 3,300 gems (the floor was around 600 gems) and decided to to jump on it based on the fact that sub-100 mints tend to be worth 10x the floor. So theoretically this was worth at least 6K gems, assuming prices didn’t come down too much.
I looked through the other low mints, and saw an attractive Donald #100 sitting at 4,000 gems. The floor at the time was 700 gems, so I decided to pick that up too
And just like that, I was out of gems.
I thought about trying to sell my two low mints, but the trouble with low mints is that it can take time to find a buyer, especially for high-price collectibles.
The prices of the collectibles also started coming down as well, which would have made it difficult to sell mine.
The lowest prices I ended up seeing were 450 gems for Mickey, 400 gems for Minnie, 600 gems for Donald, 400 gems for Daisy, 1000 gems for Pluto, and 3,000 gems for Goofy.
So Minnie, Donald, and Pluto were right around where I expected them to be, while Mickey and Goofy were higher, and Daisy a little lower.
Post Mortem
This was a tough drop to predict what was going to happen going into it, given the new collectible format and influx of new money coming into the app lately.
Overall my price predictions were spot on, but it surprised me that Mickey was still so popular despite this being the 3rd appearance of the character in the app. I was also surprised by how low Daisy was, given she has a 40% lower edition size than Mickey & Minnie.
Goofy I also felt was a bit overpriced, even though he is the first SR from Disney. At 3K-and-change I would rather buy an Elsa, or possibly two Wall-Es from the Golden Moments set.
This was also the first time I made big purchases on the marketplace on drop day, chasing after low mints. It definitely feels like a high-risk, high-reward strategy, but I expect I’ll be able to sell both for a profit in the coming months as the prices of these collectibles rise (Update: Sold the Donald #100 for 6,500 gems– a 2,000 gem profit, after fees).
In the meantime though, it has taken away all my liquidity and I’ll need to purchase more gems to participate in all the drops coming up over the next week. Stacking like I had originally planned would have given me more flexibility
Anyway, that was my experience from the Mickey & Friends drop! If you found it useful or have any tips on how I could have played my cards better, let me know in the comments!
